The Only "Secret" To Successful Horse Betting
People talk about "secrets" - the secret to this, the secret to that.
You've heard or read them before, "Get the insider secrets to making a million dollars before tomorrow morning!" etc. etc. It's an old come-on, the "learn the secret" soft con.
But - did you know there really is a secret to making money betting the races?
There is only one thing that you must know in order to have a huge advantage over 95% of all other race bettors.
Have you ever heard the expression, "The best place to hide something is right under a person's nose?"
The secret I'm speaking of has always been there - right under every horse bettor's nose! It doesn't only belong to the "wise-guys," the "insiders," or the "sharpies." In fact, many of them either don't know it, or refuse to use it. They are forever looking for a special advantage in an individual race; whereas, the full-time, serious bettor is looking for an advantage that will apply more often, in a more general way.
Once you know this "secret" and put it to use, you will - once and for all - turn the race betting odds overwhelmingly in your favor.
When you discover the solution to the ages-old mystery of how to beat the horse races, you'll immediately be in a position of real power - the power to turn "gambling" into "controlled risk investing."
"Alright already" (I can hear you saying) so what's the bloody secret!?"
Know when the favorite in a race is weak - and bet the other contenders in a way that maximizes profit.
That's it. You just got the key to profits - the real "secret" of race betting success.
There are no immutable laws in racing - it's far too dynamic for that - this is as close as it comes.
But if you had one "boon" - one wish granted to your horse-betting life . . . the knowledge of one thing that would enhance your ability to make profits more than any other - this is it - to know when the race favorite is weak.
Think about all the talk, and handicapping energy expended in finding "value" in a race; who is overlaid? - by how much? - what are the fair odds? - is it smart money or foolish money? - will the odds change drastically after I bet and destroy my overlay? - etc. etc.
Yet - if the average favorite goes off at say 8/5 and you can eliminate that favorite from win consideration - you've gained a tremendous advantage - the kind of advantage that can assure you good profits from now till the cows come in!
How would it affect your horse race betting?
First, it would be the absolute perfect race filter. The decision on what races to bet and what races to pass would be automatic.
You could pass races with legitimate favorites, and save all the mental acrobatics of trying to figure the "close call" overlays in the race. You could play races when the favorite is likely false and get overlay odds on all the other contenders!
Second - your average exotics payoffs would go way up. The false favorite (or close second favorite) would never again be used in the top spot - or usually even in the second spot. You could throw all those "saver" bets with the favorite included out the window and use that money to load up heavier on the better paying combinations.
Also - your win % - your race "strike" rate would go up.
What follows are some off-the-top-of-my-head type numbers. (Please, those of you with "precise formula" type math minds - don't take issue with me, consult the writings Barry Meadows or Dick Mitchell if you want absolutely precise formulas).
If all horse race favorites win - let's say 33% of the time, but you have a good way of spotting false favorites so that in the races you bet, the favorite wins only at a 24% clip across all odds - the following would apply:
You are a better predictor of favoritism than the public by about 27% (.24/.33= .727) so - in the races with legitimate favorites that you pass - the favorite will win 42% of the time! ((.33x.27)+.33= .42)
By passing those races and betting against the favorite when it will win only 24% - do you think your hit rate on the mid-range odds horses might increase? - You'd better believe it - and regardless of what type of wager you are talking about.
With that increase in betting advantage - you are now on a level playing field - the track take has been essentially neutralized.
Of course, those false race favorites will still have some chance to win, but think about what you will gain. Favorites are always overbet in the exotics - period. The combinations not including the favorite are much more likely to be underbet.
If you've decided the race favorite is somewhere between "can't win" and "24% chance to win," yet is going off near post-time at 9/5 - if that percentage of the pool money is redistributed among your other contenders, many of those other exacta combos will now be at good overlay payoffs.
For a conservative actual number - just subtract the % of actual odds from your projected 24% winning favorites. Example The "false favorite" is at 8/5 - so around 38% of the money is being bet on that one. If you've established a several hundred race figure of only 24% winning favorites (across all odds) in the races you bet - then that leaves 14% to be redistributed among say, two or three others that you have made as contenders.
This kind of adjustment is for those players who make a "serious" betting line. For others, the easy way to think about it (though it won't always be true) is that any of the combinations that don't include the favorite will be offering better-than-fair prices.
There are plenty of computer programs out there that automatically download the pp's - choose a pace line - crunch all the numbers and spit out a short list of contenders. All this without any input from the handicapper. If you spend your time only identifying races that contain false favorites and then bet into only the races with those - you can far more quickly and easily i.d. overlays from the next three or four contenders.
Confine your horse race betting to those races only and see what it does for your bottom-line!
See the horse handicapping article #3 for ways to find out if the favorite in a race is weak.
Or you can purchase any of a number of our our products and sharpen your approach to a fine (and highly profitable) point!