Most players indulge in betting the exotics.

They'll play exactas quite often, an occasional trifecta, maybe even a few triples or a rare "feeling lucky today" pick 6.

The thing is - the average player approaches these potentially high paying wagers in the wrong way.

 

They almost always include the favorite or other low odds horses on top in the exactas and trifectas.

To use these on top of any other low or medium odds horses is a mistake since these combinations inevitably pay off at less than fair odds. Of course, the reasoning for including these is the hope of cashing at least a ticket that will cover the other wagers made.

Okay - so it's a kind of insurance.

The attempt to protect the bankroll is a very good idea - the problem is that this is the wrong way to go about it. To play under-lays in any kind of wager is counter to optimal profit building.  Betting low paying exacta and trifecta combos is just not an efficient way to protect the bankroll.

The better approach is to initiate "Portfolio" style betting management.

We suggest three different bankrolls; win, exacta and trifecta. You do not share or rob across bankrolls. Each bankroll succeeds or fails on its own. Bets are proportioned to the individual bank according to win % expectancies, average pay-off, number of plays per week, probability of ruin (running the bank to 0) and so forth.

The great advantages of portfolio betting are:

It smoothes the high and lows

It increases the possibility of steady profits

It lowers the likelihood of devastating losing streaks

It keeps the player in position to make the "big hits" that can spike a bankroll dramatically

 

Here are examples of two approaches to betting a typical race:

Example 1:

Say the contenders in a race have been narrowed to five. Three of those are considered for win contention, and those three along with the other two for potential in-the-money placement.

Below are those horses in the order of preference with near post-time odds:

Horse A: 7/5 favorite

Horse B: 6/1

Horse C: 8/1

Horse D: 7/2

Horse E: l4/l

Horses A, B, and C, are the win contenders.

The average player with a haphazard betting style and a $40 per race comfort level might play the race as follows: $16.00 to win an Horse A, $2.00 to win on B, $2.00 exacta box A-B-C, $2.00 straight exacta A-D and A-E, $1.00 trifecta A to B,C to B,C,D,E

Total amount all wagers - $40.00

There are dozens of ways to bet these same horses - many of which; however, would have one common factor: insurance.

In the above scenario, whereas the win bet on B was probably made on purpose as an insurance bet, the win bet on A has also become nothing but an insurance bet. As well, the A-B and A-D exacta wagers and the A-D-E trifecta.

So, this player has $23 worth of insurance bets on a $40 total wager. That's a 57.5% insurance fee!

If you bought, say, a $250,000 insurance policy of any other kind - accident, life, etc. - would you be willing to pay $143,750 to get that policy? Of course not!

Now some might observe, "But what if A wins and one of the exactas or trifectas - or both - with A on top come in?"  In that case the player would have a decent score yes - yet still not likely in the monster range - and besides - "what if" is the never ending litany of bankrupt and busted race players.

 

 

An alternative way to bet the above race would be to key one or two of the higher odds contenders.  A player who wanted to put himself in the best position for a good score might play as follows:

Eliminate the favorite for all but show position in the exotics.  Key the 6/1 second ranked horse.  Bets as follows:  $12 win on Horse B.  $3 exacta box B-C, $2 straight exacta B-E, $1.00 tri B,C to B,C,D,E to B-C,D,E,A.

Total in is $42 and there are several chances to make good scores - with little or no wasted "insurance money."

 

Playing multiple bankrolls at multiple tracks using higher odds horses as keys - necessitates a fairly large starting bankroll.   That, unfortunately, is hard fact.

BUT - we cannot advise prayers strongly enough NOT to over-bet their bankrolls!

 

Here are our general guidelines for bankroll size:

Win bet bankroll should be at least 50x the size of the average win bet. $10 win wagers would require a $500 bankroll.

Exacta bet bankroll should be 75x the average exacta bet. $24 average per race exacta bets would require an $1800 bankroll.

Trifecta bet bankroll should be 100x the average trifecta bet. $36 per race average in would require a bankroll of $3600.

Some of you reading this might be a little aghast at those figures. The full portfolio for the three wager types and averages would need to be banked to the tune of $5,900.

Of course, that figure doesn't need to be "right now" liquid funds. Only a smaller portion needs to be "active" - say 33%, or around $2000. That should be manageable for most, and must be for anyone really serious about pursuing race betting as a business.

The possibility exists, of course, that at least one of the bankrolls in the portfolio will take off right away and accrue generous profits from the start. In that case, there would be little or no "draw-down" on the original bank It may never come to pass that the player would need even 25% of that original $6000 figure.  But - prudence demands that the serious player be prepared for adverse betting runs - the inevitable losing streaks.

The beauty of portfolio betting management is that it mitigates against devastating losses.

 

It smoothes the spikes of your betting cycles - both on the upside and the downside.

Which isn't to say there will never be losing days or weeks - there will be. That's just the nature of controlled risk ventures - the "name of the game" as they say.

With the Horse Racing Gold Index and the full portfolio betting plan, you - if you are a serious and self-controlled player with a minimum of $1500 risk capital - stand to gain sums of money only dreamed of by most players - even many of the "pros."

If you don't relish the idea of betting on potentially high paying exotics - or you don't at present have the required bankroll - that's okay. Use the HRG Index for win betting only and build your exotics bankroll from profits. Raise bets accordingly only after gains have been made. Later, maybe your win betting successes will put you in a position - both mentally and financially - to implement the full portfolio.

 

 

If you have any questions about the topics and ideas in this e-book, don't hesitate to send us an e-mail:
[email protected]

As always, Good Luck and Good Wagering!