Nuggets #17      

*Important notice:  Please take a moment to put Horse Racing Gold on your email "whitelist" or "safelist."  This will help insure you always receive our letters and notice for each new issue.  The following link will take you to a page that has simple instructions on how to do this.    Thank you.     Click here

 

The subject of this issue of the Nuggets newsletter is:

The "VV" Method
A new way to look at odds

 

I want to revisit the topic discussed in Nuggets #9.  As a quick review - Bettors usually fall into one of two camps (if they have a method to their madness at all!):

- They like to see the odds on their horse go up, so they can get what they assume is value on their wager.

- They prefer to see the odds on their horse go down, so they can sense a verification of their handicapping - that there is indeed "action" on their horse - that it is "live."

Now for the serious player, both of these approaches assume two things; that the player is not betting on under-lay crowd favorites, and that he or she makes their own betting line.

Most casual players use the Morning Line in lieu of spending their time (which can be considerable when h-capping 3 to 6 tracks) crafting their own betting odds line.

I am proposing here a method that considers all of the above and uses each factor and concept to create a synergistic result that can be dynamite at certain tracks.

I'll call it the "V V Method" - short for "verified value."

The basic idea: We want to see our horse both rise in odds and - at the same time - drop in odds.             
What the??!

Here's what I mean: The public uses the Morning Line and the Morning Line maker is trying to predict how the public (the crowd) will bet - right?  If then, there is betting action - a drop in odds - on a horse that is not the crowd favorite - that can be a positive sign.  That just could be "smart money" making itself known.

On-the-other-hand, if we have created our own betting line - we'll want to see a horse rise above that "fair value" number , so that we are relatively assured that we are getting value on our wager.

In this method, we will require both of the above events before we make a wager.

Got the general picture?  Good - now I'll give you the "rules" I have been using - some examples - then a complete work-out of the last 5 days of racing as issued by us in the Horse Racing Gold Index.

I consider only my top 4 ranked horses.

 

I give each of those an odds number.  Now those four horses will have both a morning line number and my betting line number.  I require a minimum two-odds level move.  That can happen in one of three ways:

The horse can go lower than the morning line and stay higher than my betting line.

Ex. #1:  M.L. - 4/1     Actual odds - 3/1     My line - 2/1

That would equal a 4 odds level move: 4 to 7/2 to 3 for a drop of 2 levels from the morning line, and 2 to 5/2 to 3 for a rise of 2 levels from my betting line.

Ex. #2: M.L. - 8/1     Actual odds - 4/1     My line - 4/1

Here there is a 5 level drop from the morning line: 8 to 7 to 6 to 5 to 9/2 to 4.  There is a zero level move from my line, but that's okay.  That's exactly the kind of "action" that does not figure to be crowd money / bandwagon money - so I'll accept the "exactly fair" relationship to my betting line number.

Ex. #3: M.L. - 5/1    Actual odds - 5/1     My line - 5/2

This is the opposite of the previous example.  The horse is an overlay to my betting line by 5 levels: 5/2 to 3 to 7/2 to 4 to 9/2 to 5.  It has not dropped from the morning line, yet neither has it floated up. 

It is very likely that another horse in the betting has dropped significantly - maybe a morning line 2/1 horse that is now at 7/5 - which indicates, in fact, that our 5/1 horse is taking quite a bit of extra "non-crowd" money.  Otherwise it would have drifted up in odds in direct relation to the crowd money flowing in on the favorite.

Those are the three possible qualifying scenarios.  As long as there is a two level odds move in total - it's a bet.  

Do not bet when the horse has not conformed to one of those patterns.

Ex. - M.L. - 4/1     Actual odds -  9/2      My line 7/2

The horse has moved higher against both lines, so it can't qualify.

And - do not accept a move down of 1 level only if it is overlaid by one level only.

Ex. - M.L. - 4/1    Actual odds - 7/2    My line 3/1

The reason is that a slight  move in odds after betting might make it a "no-bet," so in general these are too close to be able to make a good call on.

The other "rules" are:
1. Horse must be between 3/1 and 20/1 on the morning line.
2. Horse must be between 2/1 and 12/1 closing odds ( make decision as close to post-time as you can wait and still get your bet down).
3. Horse must be in your top 4 ranked contenders.
4. If two qualify - bet them both.
5. If three qualify - bet the highest ranked - then from the other two choose the one that originally had the lowest morning line.
6. If a horse drops in half from ML, accept regardless of ratio to my line

The table below shows the results for last 5 days of racing; Oct. 10th, 11th, 12th, 15th and 16th (we only issue the HRG Index Wed. through Sun).

The asterisks are when there is more than one qualifier in a race, they go with the line immediately above.

date	track	M.L.	Actual	My line	Win	pla	sho
10/10/03	wo	12	9	7/2	20.4	8.9	5.8
	*	12	7	4
	haw	8	5	7/2
	haw	8	7/2	5/2			2.8
	haw	12	8	6			5.2
	sa	8	6	7/2		6.2	4.6
	sa	4	4	3	10.6	6.6	3.6
	kee	12	12	4		10.8	6.8
10/11/03	bel	4	3	5/2	8.5	4.3	3.4
	*	8	9/2	4
	bel	10	10	7/2
	bel	5/2	5/2	9/5	7.3	4.1	3.4
	*	8	4	4
	bel	9/2	3	3	8.2	3.6	2.4
	bel	12	11	5
	haw	7/2	7/2	2			3
	haw	7/2	5/2	9/5			2.6
	*	5	9/2	3	11	4.2	3
	haw	9/2	3	9/5
	haw	6	5/2	5/2
	haw	7/2	7/2	2		4.4	2.8
	haw	10	10/1	9/2			4.8
	haw	10	6	4	14.6	5.2	3.8
	kee	10	7	7/2		5.4	4.2
	kee	5/2	5/2	9/5	7.2	4.2	2.8
	*	5	5	4
	wo	7/2	5/2	2		3.2	2.8
	wo	12	5	7/2			3.1
	wo	8	6	3			4.1
	sa	5	9/2	3			x
	sa	5	9/2	5/2			3.6
	*	7/2	7/2	5/2	9.4	4.4	2.8
	sa	5	7/2	2		5.4	3.6
	*	8	5	4
	sa	8	7/2	5/2		5	3.4
	bm	6	7/2	5/2			3.6
	bm	6	4	7/2	10.2	4.6	3
	bm	9/2	7/2	2		4.4	3
	bm	5	9/2	2
10/12/03	bel	3/1	5/2	2/1
	bel	5	5/2	2
	*	6	5	5/2
	bel	8	6	7/2		6.9	4.9
	bel	7/2	7/2	5/2
	bel	12	7	4		7.8	6.3
	sa	5	3	5/2
	*	6	9/2	7/2
	sa	5	7/2	9/5
	*	8	5	5/2	12.4	7.4	5.2
	sa	5	9/2	5/2
	*	6	5	5/2
	sa	8	4	3			2.6
	bm	10	6	4		5	2.8
	bm	12	9	4	21.2	8.6	5
	bm	7/2	5/2	2	7.6	3	2.4
	bm	10	8	9/2
	kee	9/2	3	3	8.4	4.2	3.2
	*	12	6	9/2			4.2
	kee	5	9/2	5/2
	kee	6	9/2	7/2
	kee	6	5/1	3	12.6	5.6	5.2
10/15/03	bm	8	7	9/2	16	5.8	2.6
	bm	12	6	3
	bm	8	9/2	5/2
	*	6	5	7/2	13.4	6.8	4.4
	sa	5	5	3
	sa	5	4	2
	sa	8	9/2	7/2		5.8	3.2
	wo	4	5/2	5/2	7.2	4.3	2.9
	wo	12	9/2	7/2
	wo	12	11	7/2	25.8	8.8	6.1
	haw	9/2	7/2	3
	haw	8	6	3			2.8
	haw	6	5	3			4.2
	kee	4	2	2		4	3.4
	kee	7/2	5/2	5/2			3.6
	*	5	4	3
10/16/03	bel	4	3	9/5
	bel	6	9/2	3
	bel	10	8	3
	bel	5/2	2	9/5	6.9	3.3	2.4
	sa	7/2	5/2	2
	kee	8	5	5	13.4	6.4	4.2
	kee	4	4	5/2
	*	8	7/2	5/2
	kee	4	5/2	5/2			2.8
	kee	5	7/2	2
	*	4	7/2	3	9.2	4.6	3.6
	kee	5	7/2	3
	*	6	5	9/2	13.8	6.8	4.8
	kee	5	3	2
	*	4	7/2	2		4	3
	haw	7/2	3	2
	*	4	3	3	8.8	3.6	2.4
	haw	8	6	7/2		5.4	4.4
	haw	6	7/2	5/2	9	5.2	2.6
	haw	4	4	3			4
	haw	9/2	7/2	3	9.6	5.4	3
	haw	6	7/2	2		5.8	3.2
	haw	9/2	2	2	6.2	3.4	3

 

	$ in win	$ in pla	$ in sho
100 wagers	$200	$200	$200
	$ out	$ out	$ out
	308.9	232.8	216.4
	Roi	Roi	Roi
	+54.5%	+16.4%	+8.2%
	# hits	# hits	# hits
	27	43	60
	hit %	hit %	hit %
	0.27	0.43	0.6
	Avg pay	Avg pay	Avg pay
	$11.44	$5.41	$3.61

 

Give it a shot - you might just like what you find!

Tools to help you along your road to race betting success . . .

Racing Exchange Gold

Show Me The Money!

The P-3 Betting Method

Wagering To Win

Exotics Wagering Calculator

Morning Line Maker

Dutching Calculator

 

Click the links below to go to the other sections of this site:

 

Horse racing betting at the professional level

What you get

	Horse racing betting results for HRG Index
	Guarantee
	Order page
	Information sites

Valuable horse betting  information

	Contact information for HRG
	Home Page

 

Good Luck and Good Wagering!