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Finding False Favorites
Let's get into the general horse handicapping factors that will point out weakness in an over-bet crowd favorite. I'll group these factors under five headings:
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The ability of the trainer
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The ability of the jockey
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The ability of the horse
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The current form of the horse
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Miscellaneous factors
Trainer ability:
The obvious first "look" is to see if the trainer has any ability!
Trainers whose horses win at an over-all percentage of 6% or less are prime go-against candidates. Winning across all odds at these low rates (assuming he has sent out runners in at least 20 races) means a bettor would really need about 14 or 15-1 on these guy's horses in order to consider it a fair bet. How poor a wager then if his horse is going favored!
Don't use the horse handicapping factors in this article in isolation - any trainer can send out a horse capable of winning a given race - but let's set these low % trainers' runners aside as potential "false favorites."
Also, a trainer with more average looking over-all win figures - say 10-12% - can still be very weak in certain areas: turf races, 1st after a claim, 1st time starters, 1st after a lay-off, etc.. You should look further into the trainers records - past just his cumulative totals.
Jockey ability:
I don't put as much emphasis here unless the jock is one of those so-called "no win" types at the circuit. If his or her record is extremely poor - say 4% or less (over 50 races), then yes - I'll demote any horse ridden by that jock.
Horse ability:
This handicapping category should, of course, get the most scrutiny. The BIG question you ask yourself is always: Can this horse be expected to compete well enough to deserve favoritism in today's race?
Very often the answer is "no" - from a resounding, "no way in hell" - to a not so sure "probably not."
What should you look for in order to deftly place the horse somewhere in that range?
First - its par times / ability times / power, or pace ratings / etc.
If you use a computer program to crunch raw data into some type of final rating - and you have chosen a good and representative race from which to enter the data (that is, you've avoided the "garbage in - garbage out" problem) then any favorite that rates poorly in those numbers should be considered as a potentially weak favorite.
When a horse has shown that it can't or won't run to the pars, or pace demands of today's race - how could it possibly be considered for favoritism?
A response might be, "But what if they're all a bunch of nags and none of 'em can run?"
Okay - then you have what's been termed a "chaos" race - hard to figure, hard to handicap, and hard to predict. In that kind of race where every runner is weak, the favorite becomes a solid bet-against candidate if:
Current Form:
A horse may have the potential ability, or back class to be able to trounce today's field - IF - it is at the point in its condition cycle that will allow a top performance.
Again, this is often not the case, yet maybe because it is a "high profile" horse with a top jock or trainer, and it has some sparkling performances in past races, it will go favored today regardless of its readiness.
A lot has been written and discussed - and used and abused - when it comes to identifying, and getting a handle on a horses' current form. Formerly, any kind of layoff of over a month for cheap to mid-level claimers was looked at in a negative way.
Racing has changed.
Horses can and are being given longer breaks away from racing - then coming back fresh and in condition to run well. William Scott published a couple of handicapping books in the early 80's that put forth some pretty good guidelines that still hold (more-or-less) today.
Here's a gross simplification of his extensive research . . .
A favorite (or any other horse) can be coming off a layoff - even one as long as 6 months - and still be legitimate if it has worked 5 furlongs within the last 14 days.
